Why I'll Bet on the Bull
By William Cate
Published May 2002
[http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/] [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/globalvillageinvestmentclubwelcome/]
Last week, most Daytraders had a terrible week. The Bear
slaughtered them by the thousands. There was "Blood in the Streets" at the
wire houses where Daytraders congregate. Did we witness the beginning of a
Recession or Depression last week?
There are many sound reasons for betting on the Bear. Here are a
half dozen reasons that the Bear should win.
1. We've had a 17 year Bull Market. It has gone on too long and the DIA is
too high.
2. Private businesses are making less profit.
3. Few public companies are profitable.
4. Business costs are going up faster than business revenue.
5. The Feds should tighten the money supply. I doubt they'll do it because
they will fear the Bear and the potential of a Recession.
6. Inflation is higher than the Government reports. The Government removed
heating oil and gasoline from the inflation index because they have nearly
doubled in price.
There is one simple reason that the Bull will win. After the 1987
Market Correction, the Government decided to allow the Feds to invest in
the Market. The Feds started buying stocks around noon Friday (4/14/00).
They will continue to buy until panic ends. Meanwhile, they have the
weekend to manipulate Market Forces. It's a matter of aligning allies and
educating the press and others as to the reasons the Bull should prevail
before the November election.
As long as the U. S. Dollar is strong, the Bull will win every
battle with the Bear. The Feds buying unlimited stock means the Stock
Market is backed by the "Full Faith of the U. S. Government." For the Bear
to win, the U. S. Dollar must be seen as worthless. This will eventually
happen. It's unlikely to happen in the next ten or fifteen years. When it
happens, we'll face the worst Depression in History.
What will bring down the World Economy? It'll be derivatives. What
will bring down our Civilization? It'll be the collapse of the environment.
Both will happen in this Century. Neither will happen this year.
To contact the author: Visit the Beowulf Investments website: [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/] Or, visit the Global Village Investment Club Website:
[http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/globalvillageinvestmentclubwelcome/]
About the Author
He has been the Managing Director of Beowulf Investments [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/] since 1981 and is the Executive Director of the Global Village Investment Club [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/globalvillageinvestmentclubwelcome/]