You can tell it's quiet out there in the world of new products when the
biggest introductions this season both come from Microsoft, the X Box and the
XP platform. Though these new items are getting some buzz from tech
journalists, the coverage only comes because there isn't much else to write
about. What I'm loudly not hearing is any street noise that would indicate
real excitement.
You can't blame this one on September 11. Even before the terrorist attacks
snapped us awake to the dangers lurking in our world, consumers and business
people alike had grown very ho-hum about tech introductions, from PCs to
broadband. Have you noticed that the urge to get the newest, fastest computer
or Internet connection is just not as pressing lately?
In this drowsy period, the optimistic blush has faded from the Internet and
from technology in general. Our expectations have moved into a long, slow
decline. We no longer really expect to be surprised by the reach of
connectivity of by advances in the quality of our life. Mostly I think we're
hoping that the odd, intangible decline we sense around us will not be too
severe.
Yet just as there was a crash hiding behind the 1999 dot com explosion, there
is an innovation boom growing stealth-like behind the gloomy headlines of
layoffs and sinking earnings reports. Ask any tech company about its design
staff and you'll discover this is the one pocket in the corporation that is
free from cutbacks and layoffs.
This is not news to Gary Smith, chief analyst design & engineering at the San
Jose-based Gartner Dataquest research firm. "Design spending always goes up
in a recession. You 'design' yourself out of a recession," said Smith. The
analyst recently revealed data that shows an innovation spurt occurring as
the economy tanks. Innovation slacks off as spending climbs. Much of the
innovation that will drive the coming upturn is being developed in a flurry
of activity that is off the radar right now. Don't let these quiet streets
fool you.
When we return to years of fruitful product and service introductions, you'll
notice the Internet will not be all the rage that it was in 1999 and 2002.
Much of the innovation will be Internet-based, Internet developed and will
have Internet components, but the Net will no longer be the center of
innovation. Instead, it will be the network on which the innovation lives.
As we learned to shift bank funds by using our push-button phones, we didn't
marvel at what our phones could now do. The Internet will have a central role
in coming new technology. It will be the core of new developments, but it
won't be the focus. The Internet will become so ubiquitous, it will become
invisible.
We may see a flood of special-interest television programming coming through
our cable service. New features on our television may give us the ability to
choose from thousands on movies or let us view a network program at anytime
of our choosing. We may be able to use the television like an encyclopedia,
or call up home videos from the buttons on our remote. Our PC, game platforms
and television will likely become indistinguishable.
The Internet will be the very lifeblood of these innovations, yet it won't
look like the Internet. No more scratchy dial-up or waiting for pages to
load. No more jerky, short video clips that threaten to freeze and crash. No
more dusty wires crammed into a surge breaker.
These innovations are being developed now. Many are ready and waiting. Some
are wireless, some are broadband, most incorporate the Internet in one way or
another. They won't be revealed until consumers and executives demonstrate
renewed optimism. This seemingly quiet period of tech decline is just a
breather. Once we catch our collective breath, we'll enter the next new world
of tech breakthroughs that will again change our lives.
About the Author
Rob Spiegel is the author of Net Strategy (Dearborn) and The Shoestring
Entrepreneur's Guide to Internet Start-ups (St. Martin's Press). You can
reach Rob at spiegelrob@aol.com